In the wake of the collapse of GM and Chrysler and many of their suppliers, Trend Tracker's latest report, published on 2 November 2009 - by auto industry academics Dr Paul Nieuwenhuis and Dr Peter Wells of Cardiff Business School - forecasts radical reshaping of the global car industry.

No conventional management report, Car Futures - Rethinking the automotive industry beyond the American model - is aimed at policy makers, academics, environmental NGOs, and of course, the industry itself. The authors say, “We hope to shock all of these interest groups at least some of the time as a contribution to the reconstruction of what remains a vital industry.”

Drawing on the history of the auto industry since mass production began in Detroit, the authors argue that the crisis of the once-'Big Three' (GM, Ford, Chrysler) has put in question the whole American business model, copied worldwide, that once underpinned their dominance.

They write in the report's Executive Summary, “There is a mistaken belief among car manufacturers that their activity is the be all and end all of automobility. While there is no car market without somebody making a car, there is no business without somebody making money, and that is where car makers seem to be missing a trick or two. Manufacturers only capture a limited slice of the total automotive value chain.

“New business models for the future would need to capture more of that value chain by integrating assembly, distribution and aftercare. This kind of thinking could also ultimately lead to a more sustainable car industry in economic, social and environmental terms. The current recession with its attendant credit crunch may well accelerate this process of industrial transformation. Many current players have proved to be ill-adapted to the 21st century automotive ecosystem. We may see some radically new business models emerge within the next 10 or 20 years.”

If you are interested in the future shape of the industry, see the Reports pages on this site for more details of this report and how to get hold of it.