Previously we have explained how the number of cars on the road up to four years old has a knock-on effect to the aftersales market. As new car sales fall the so-called 'four-year car parc' diminishes in size and franchised dealerships, which rely on younger cars for servicing business, start to feel the effects. Then as time passes this dearth of cars becomes a problem for independent garages targeting older cars. What is less well understood is that a falling four-year car parc impacts on the market for car body repairs too, because it is generally newer cars that are repaired after an accident.

Right now our company is working hard to complete two major reports on the markets for car body repairs and servicing. With all the research complete the effects of the falling four-year car parc are already apparent.

The four-year car parc has been falling since 2004 because new car sales peaked in 2003. However the fall was barely detectable at around four per cent, 2004 to 2007. Then as new car sales fell off the proverbial cliff in the second half of 2008, the pace quickened and we calculate that by the end of 2009 the fall will amount to 15% since 2004; and by 2012 the fall will be 25%.

In the bodyshop market, the number of repairs has fallen eight per cent since 2006 and the falling four-year car parc is a key driver. Clearly there are other factors at work including: car usage, write-offs, recession, weather, vehicle design, used car sales (refurbishment), propensity for motorists to claim, etc. But there is a strong correlation with changes in the four-year car parc.

In the market for car servicing, maintenance and repair, our principal indicators come from a consumer survey we have run continuously since 1993. This survey asks 1,000 motorists every month the simple question: “Where did you last have your car serviced”. The earliest results found that 24% of motorists had their last service at a franchised dealership. This peaked at 30% in 2005 and the trend has been downwards ever since. The latest result for 2009 is 27.8%. Again there is a strong correlation with the four-year car parc.

Of course players in the service market do not have to accept this situation and they can reach out to motorists in other age segments. But in the car body repair market it is insurers that decide which cars are repaired. The number of car body repairs has already fallen by eight per cent in three years and our forecast model suggests a fall of 14% between the recent peak in 2006 and 2014.

Adapting to these 'black holes' in the aftersales markets will be a challenge for players, who need to adopt long-term strategies as these markets will not 'right' themselves any time soon.

Written by Trend Tracker director Chris Oakham, this piece first appeared his column in the subscription monthly Auto Retail Bulletin in November 2009. (See www.auto-retail.com for subscription details.)

Chris Oakham

Trend Tracker Limited

0870 421 4350

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