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Blog Entries from 09/2010
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Pessimism and optimism
The least fun part of research is the statistics especially the maths required to work out cause and effect. We employ experts to do all this sort of stuff for us who render forth in what seems like a foreign language full of mysterious words and phrases like ‘t-tests’, ‘significance’ and ‘correlation’.
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The remarkable resilience of retailers
At least some of Trend Tracker’s analysts, myself included, have shown a glass-half-empty attitude towards the standard-model new car franchise system, as some of our past white papers have attested. But we have to admit that earlier reports of its impending demise were more than a little premature. The system isn’t bust yet, indeed it survived the 2008 recession rather better than many might have expected.
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Rare earth metals to get rarer faster?
The New York Times reported on Thursday (22.09.10) that the Chinese government had officially denied halting exports of rare earth metals to Japan, in retaliation for the detention of a Chinese trawler skipper in a long-standing territorial dispute. China had already cut export quotas for the cerium, lanthanum, neodymium etc. etc. on which Toyota et al depend for their NiMH batteries, permanent magnet electric motors and much else besides, and has over 90% of the world’s known rare earth metals deposits.
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Forecasting the Future 2009-2015
Essentially the Car Service and Repair Trend Tracker Update 2010 combines three longstanding research reports into one. First, and perhaps best known, is the Service Trend Tracker. Published since 1995, this report is based on extensive consumer surveys. Every month, 1,000 motorists are asked about where they last had their car serviced. The result is ‘servicing retention’ by make of car and provider of servicing – dealers, independents and DIY – a measure we have always found to mirror, very closely, the industry standard ‘service retention’ that includes all types of mechanical work including routine servicing.
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Facts and figures - DfT analysis of MOT Testing
Two invaluable sources of facts and figures for our research reports come from the Department for Transport (DfT) – the snappily-named Transport Statistics Great Britain and Transport Trends. Hardly the most thrilling reads, but crucial to understanding what’s happening in the car market and why.
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And so it begins
Previously we have explained how the number of cars on the road up to four years old has a knock-on effect to the aftersales market. As new car sales fall the so-called 'four-year car parc' diminishes in size and franchised dealerships, which rely on younger cars for servicing business, start to feel the effects. Then as time passes this dearth of cars becomes a problem for independent garages targeting older cars. What is less well understood is that a falling four-year car parc impacts on the market for car body repairs too, because it is generally newer cars that are repaired after an accident.
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Grossing up gross margins
At this time of year, dealer group PLC’s publish their half-year results – informative barometers of the past six months. Also at this time of year private limited companies with financial years ending last December must post their accounts to Companies House.
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Small percentages add up to bigger percentages
We make no apologies for returning to the subject of parts wholesaling again because it appears, judging by our workload, that this sector is seeing a real renaissance in the franchised sector. However our work with several vehicle manufacturers, looking at network performance on their behalf, has highlighted one interesting problem – staff lacking basic knowledge.
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Automotive Mark-ups & Margins
If you buy something for £100, what do you have to sell it for to make a gross profit margin of 33%? The answer is, of course, £150. Certainly every reader of Auto Retail Network’s Bulletin where this article was first published, would have got this simple example of ‘mark-ups and margins’ correct. However, our experience running training courses for sales executives and aftersales personnel is that the mathematical skills of dealer staff are often sadly lacking, and many would come up with £133 as the answer – how would yours fare? Furthermore, our research on gross margins strongly suggests that this lack of knowledge has an impact on profits.