In December 2010 the UK government’s advisory Committee on Climate Change recommended cutting the UK's GHG emissions by 60% relative to 1990 levels (46% relative to current levels), by 2030. The UK would then require a further 62% GHG emissions reduction from 2030 to meet the 2050 target already legislated for in the UK’s Climate Change Act.

The CCC said this 2030 target could be achieved through reducing the carbon intensity of electricity by 90%, by dint of smart metering and adding the equivalent of 25 new large scale, low-carbon power stations (up to 40 GW) to the grid, with radical reform of the electricity market. Simple, then!

The CCC said a 45% reduction in surface transport emissions could be achieved, mainly via a 60% EV (Electric Vehicle) share of the new vehicle market, with 11 million electric cars and 1.5 million vans on the road by 2030. Hydrogen could be used to power HGVs and half of all buses. “More could also be done by Government to reduce car trips, by 5% by 2030, (through initiatives including encouragement of car pooling and use of public transport)" according to the CCC.

In 2009, just 55 new EVs were registered in the UK, out of a market of over 2m cars and CVs (according to climate change sceptic Christopher Booker’s blog - the figures aren’t official).

Yes we Cancun? No we Can't

When energy storage technology has to improve by a factor of five to seven; reduce in cost by two thirds; and last twice as long, for EVs to provide a real alternative to conventional cars and reach a 60% penetration in 20 years is a tall order. To say the least.

These figures aren’t ours, but US Energy Secretary Steven Chu’s, speaking at the Cancun UN climate talks, as reported by Reuters. Secretary Chu reckons competitive energy storage technology is about five years away. Let’s hope he’s right. Starting from scratch in, say, 2020, when the first new cars with truly competitive metal-air 'batteries' may be ready for volume production, a trajectory like that achieved by hybrid powertrains would achieve a market share by 2030 not of 60%, but less than 1%. With the limitations of li-ion batteries, it seems implausible that EVs will break out of a small early-adopter niche before 2020 to pump-prime the market. And when vehicles with second-generation, post-li-ion batteries do hit the market, the first-generation EVs, having cost twice as much as their closest equivalents when new, will be pretty much worthless, regardless of age or mileage.

0.8-60 how quick?

In 2009, a decade after the launch of the first-generation Prius, UK new registrations of ‘alternative fuelled’ cars, mostly hybrids, totalled 14,963 units, or 0.8% of the 1,994,999-unit new car market. Remember, unlike EVs, hybrids require no dedicated refuelling infrastructure, nor do they impose any range restrictions. No democratic government on earth has enough sticks or carrots to inflate natural demand from 15,000 units to 1.2 million.

We should respond to this cavernous gap between wishful thinking and evidence with more than mere irritation at the apparent inability of intelligent public servants to inspect real-world data. We should demand that they invest more intensively, not in funding EV production lines and incentives, but, like Mr Chu, in funding more powertrain technology research. The US Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency put US$400m into battery chemistries and other technologies considered too risky for the private sector. That’s not a lot compared to what was spent on bailing out Detroit, or the US$557 billion in subsidies that a report in The Guardian earlier in 2010 claimed the fossil fuel industry received in 2009.

At the same time, we need urgently to pull all available strings to de-carbonise electricity production. For now, we are still slaves to fossil fuels, while at this embryonic stage of 'EVolution', our politicians are over-investing in producing and subsidizing vehicles without seemingly understanding their infrastructure demands, market appeal or environmental credentials.

To quote Fuel Cell Today's newsletter from departing analyst Dr Kerry-Ann Adamson, “We need to work towards technology being politically neutral with government supporting the development of technologies that could play a role in meeting societal aims, not picking winners.”

We hope EVs will be winners for society at large rather than the few – tomorrow’s EVs, if not today’s – but there’s much more work to be done before we know how. Our forthcoming report on the subject explains why.

Toby Procter

Trend Tracker Limited

0870 421 4350

aftermarket report, bodyshop market, car finance, electric vehicles, car servicing, automotive research

Trend Tracker'sEVs: Energy, Infrastructure and Mobility in the Real World is available to download and includes chapters on:

• EV technology
• Battery chemistries
• Profiles of X EV manufacturers and Y traction battery manufacturers
• EVs and power generation
• Recharging infrastructure development
• Oil and other critical resource constraints
• Market penetration forecasts
• Fiscal policies
• Business models

This report is based on strategic research and three years of tracking developments in the EV and automotive sectors. No mere technology update, it offers uncomfortable advice based on a mass of technology, energy and resources data. It’s designed to help investors, politicians, environmentalists and senior executives in the automotive and power utility sectors get to grips with the dynamics and problems of what could be the most difficult transition since globalisation –from oil to electricity.