A year ago we published a weighty tome about electric vehicles (EVs) which we assumed at the time would go out of date fairly quickly because of fast-moving technological developments.

Since then, far less technical progress has been made than we anticipated. Indeed, very little has changed - which has left us wondering whether electric vehicles have ‘stalled’.

According to the SMMT, year to date October sales of EVs were a paltry 1,021 units despite a generous taxpayer subsidy of up to £5,000. This is a very small take-up of the 8,000 taxpayer grants available and the story is similar in other EU countries. So what’s the problem?

There has been a plethora of surveys asking motorists for their views on EVs. One of the most comprehensive is the recent GfK Automotive study. They interviewed over 3,000 motorists and discovered that 8% want to buy an EV.

They also discovered that potential buyers underestimate how much EVs cost and how long they take to charge up but overestimate the range on a fully charged battery. However among the motorists with no intention of buying an EV, GfK found a more realistic appreciation of purchase price, recharging time and range.

Perhaps that’s why these motorists wouldn’t buy an EV, or is that a ‘glass half empty’ conclusion? Or have GfK’s naysayers nailed the three core problems with EVs? Quite possibly.

Firstly, electric cars are too expensive even when subsidised, and are likely to remain so without volume production. Secondly, recharging is an almost insurmountable difficulty.

Fewer than 40% of motorists have driveway or garage parking which precludes home charging for most. Recharging on the move is presently near-impossible with very few public charging points.

However, private enterprise in the shape of Chargemaster’s Polar network intends to roll out an extensive charging network available to members on monthly subscription. Interestingly, Chargemaster talks about a 40% share of half a million EVs within a decade. Half a million? From where we stand at present, this seems unlikely.

The third problem is the range of EVs between charges. Unless there is a great leap forward in battery technology, which might well happen, the range of between 60 and 100 miles presently achievable is simply not good enough, especially if you can’t find a charging point.

So just on the basics, EVs are impractical as they stand. That’s even before you consider the perilous state of investment in the UK’s National Grid, and how to manage the ramping up of EV production.

Besides, with advances like Ford’s tiny, three-cylinder Ecoboost engine coming on stream - likely to achieve 120 g/km CO2 and 118 bhp - why do we need EVs? Perhaps EVs will have to wait until the oil runs out.

Written by Trend Tracker director Chris Oakham, this piece first appeared his column in the subscription monthly Auto Retail Bulletin.(See auto-retail.co.uk for subscription details.)

Chris Oakham

Trend Tracker Limited

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