In the ‘real world’ economy of average earnings, inflation, unemployment and consumer confidence there is every indication that the UK economy will struggle in the short-term. Economic growth will be flat and there is a chance of the UK dipping back into recession in 2012.

The year on year increase in average earnings has been around 2% for the last three months, and apart from January and June 2011, it has barely exceeded 3%. On the other hand, inflation as measured by RPI has run at around 5% during 2011. Clearly this disparity makes people poorer.

Unemployment increased substantially during the recent recession and has stayed stubbornly high since the middle of 2009, reaching 8.3% in October 2011 - the highest since 1994.

Predictably consumer confidence is extremely low. The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index stood at 36 points in October, which is the lowest since its inception in April 2004. As we have pointed out here before, new car sales correlate strongly with consumer confidence.

These and other economic trends, suggest that 2012/2013 will be a re-run of 2011. After that, the return of economic growth depends on the success of government policies and what happens in the global economy and Euroland in particular.

It seems to us that the coalition government is on the right track with its aim of reducing government spending as a proportion of the economy. But, so far the coalition has failed to get a grip and will probably have ended up taxing, borrowing and spending more in 2011 than recent years.

The big unknown is what will happen to the euro. EU politicians seem utterly determined to keep the euro alive even if it means reducing southern Europe to permanent penury rather than fixing the basic flaws in the design of the currency.

This could end in the disorderly failure of the euro and even the collapse of the European Union. It is more likely, however, that ailing countries like Greece will be forced out of the euro. Whatever happens, the UK will undoubtedly suffer.

For UK auto retailing, uncertain economic conditions make planning difficult. Past experience suggests that used cars and aftersales represent the most reliable profit centres in times of uncertainty, and there is every reason to hope these departments will not disappoint in 2012.

Written by Trend Tracker director Chris Oakham, this piece first appeared his column in the subscription monthly Auto Retail Bulletin.(See auto-retail.co.uk for subscription details.)

Chris Oakham

Trend Tracker Limited

0870 421 4350

aftermarket report bodyshop market car finance electric vehicles car servicing

Every month since mid 1994, we have interviewed 1,000 motorists about where they last had their car serviced. Since 2005 we have added a host of other questions about common SMR operations. It is this extensive consumer survey that forms the basis of our Castrol Professional Car Service and Repair report.

Comparing retention of routine servicing and retention of the full range of SMR exposes only minor variations. Hence retention of routine servicing (“servicing retention”) is an excellent guide to the state of play in the SMR market.

Trend in retention of routine servicing by provider segments

Last month we took delivery of the interim results (January to September 2011) for our servicing retention consumer survey question.

These data have been added to the trends since 1995 for franchised dealers (“dealer for make”), independent garages and fast-fits (“other garage”), and DIY. Also shown is the percentage of motorists interviewed who hadn’t had their car serviced since buying it, noting that the “not yet serviced” element is included in the calculations.

As the chart makes abundantly clear, the independent sector has increased its share dramatically since 2006 (to 45.7%) whereas franchised dealers are going the wrong way and losing share (25.4%). DIY has apparently levelled off although a more detailed analysis of all SMR operations actually records a slight increase.

The reasons for these changes in fortune are complex but one of the biggest drivers is car parc age – and the chart shows this recent ageing trend. By segment, franchised workshops tend to appeal to owners of cars up to four years old, independents four to eight years old, and DIY over eight years.

Because new car sales have been falling since 2005, the number of cars up to four years old has fallen by over 20%. Meanwhile the high new car sales pre-2005 have populated the four to eight year old car parc and handed a lot of SMR business to independents. Clearly the recent recession has not helped.

Of course not every retailer is equally affected. Some makes of cars, like Skoda, have increasing four-year car parcs. And we have first hand experience of volume dealer groups bucking the trend with imaginative aftersales strategies including: service plans, customer communication centres, upselling and retention of used car buyers.

Written by Trend Tracker director Chris Oakham, this piece first appeared his column in the subscription monthly Auto Retail Bulletin in November 2011.(See auto-retail.co.uk for subscription details.)

Chris Oakham

Trend Tracker Limited

0870 421 4350

aftermarket report bodyshop market car finance electric vehicles car servicing

Download 2011 Trend Tracker

When analysing the car servicing and repair market drivers, the ‘usual suspects’ include: car parc size and age profile; average car mileages; build quality trends; service intervals and content; new car warranties; labour rates …. with political and legislative factors barely a consideration. However, that could be about to change with the government’s review of the MOT test regime.

This is the second review of MOT testing in three years. The 2008 proposals, to postpone the first MOT test to four years from first registration and to test vehicles every two years thereafter (4-2-2), were not enacted.

But in mid-April 2011 the Secretary of State for Transport, Philip Hammond, announced informally (via a newspaper report) that the government would be consulting on proposals to adopt either a 4-1-1, a 4-2-1, or a 4-2-2 frequency regime. The current frequency of 3-1-1 does not seem to figure in the new review.

Any changes to MOT testing will have an impact on the retail market for car servicing and repairs. In our latest report on the market, we have not included the possibilities in our forecasts because at this stage we don’t know the outcome of the review.

We estimate that the total retail servicing and repair market including MOTs in 2010 was worth £9.46 billion (excl. VAT). A move to a 4-2-2 regime will reduce the market by at least £500 million in lost MOT test fee income – equivalent to the annual labour of 5,000 technicians.

In our most recent consumer survey of 15,725 motorists we noted that 70% of MOTs were completed by independent garages, which will obviously be hardest hit by any watering down of test frequency.

On top of the loss of MOT test fees there is the likely loss of associated work; servicing and repairs. From our consumer survey the chart illustrates the type of work carried out on cars over three years old. So, for example, 8.8% of motorists visited a provider for an MOT, routine service and one or more repairs. Nearly half of all visits to a provider included an MOT test.

Work carried out during visit to provider (3+ year-old cars)

In all likelihood, the number of repairs will stay the same if MOTs are less frequent. However the number of routine services could fall if motorists break the habit of the proverbial ‘service and MOT’. As a result, the more pessimistic forecasts of redundancies and independent garage closures could well come true.

Written by Trend Tracker director Chris Oakham, this piece first appeared his column in the subscription monthly Auto Retail Bulletin in August 2011.(See auto-retail.co.uk for subscription details.)

Chris Oakham

Trend Tracker Limited

0870 421 4350

aftermarket report bodyshop market car finance electric vehicles car servicing

I previewed the half-time results of the latest consumer research in this column last October. They clearly showed franchised dealers losing out to the independent sector and a potential increase in do-it-yourself. The final results confirmed these trends and much more.

Now looking more widely at retail servicing, maintenance and repairs (SMR), our latest research emphasises the increasing grip of the independent sector since the recession, and a renewed interest in DIY. Indeed, our research into SMR retention by age of car reveals ‘dealer for make’ falls away quickly after the second year.

Looking at the raw data for three-year-old cars alone, tyres are the second most frequent job after routine servicing; independent garage workshops and fast-fits take 50% of this business. Independents also take 30% of routine services by this age. This suggests that franchised dealers presently have a precarious hold on even their traditional stomping ground of cars up to four years old.

Apart from the changes in providers’ market shares, the recession has affected the market for SMR in other ways. Perhaps most significantly, since 2007, motorists have been keeping their cars longer. This helps explain the rare, recent upturn in the retail service and repair market. When motorists keep their cars longer, they become liable for expenditure on servicing and repairs – rather than part-exchanging when retailers end up with the bill.

During the decade from 2000 to 2010, total retail spending on mechanical servicing and repairs to cars in the UK increased by 9% - although RPI inflation turned that into a real-terms fall of 17%. However, the decline levelled off around 2004/2005 and the market actually increased in real-terms value between 2008 and 2010 to reach £8.43 billion (excluding MOTs and VAT).

The increase in DIY bucks the long-term trend established in the early 1990s away from do-it-yourself car maintenance and repairs. In 2005, DIY accounted for just 7.6% of the service, maintenance and repair work done for (or by) the 18,000 motorists interviewed for the Trend Tracker report that year. But by 2010, DIY had increased to account for 12.1% of work.

This increase in DIY meant professional providers lost work worth £300 million (excluding VAT) to DIY in 2010. Alarmingly some 28% of DIY jobs were on brakes.

The real-terms increase in the value of the SMR market is almost certainly temporary and as the UK economy recovers the long-term gradual decline will continue principally because of ever-improving vehicle quality and reliability. In the meantime there are obviously opportunities for retailers to compete by promoting the right products at the right price.

Written by Trend Tracker director Chris Oakham, this piece first appeared his column in the subscription monthly Auto Retail Bulletin in June 2011.(See auto-retail.co.uk for subscription details.)

Chris Oakham

Trend Tracker Limited

0870 421 4350

aftermarket report bodyshop market car finance electric vehicles car servicing

Namely, according to RAC figures out today, the average cost of a litre of petrol is now 133.55p - already 0.02p higher than the average price on March 23 when a 1p/litre duty cut was announced in the Budget. But the potentially negative effect of fuel cost increases on motorists’ ability to spend on servicing and maintenance is probably slight.

Which? Car greeted the recent Budget announcement on the reduction of fuel duty by checking that even at present elevated prices, road fuel is not effectively much more costly than it was back in 1980. The Which? Car team found that the annual cost of fuel for the average motorist had risen only by just over £100 since 1980, because of the improved average fuel efficiency of the vehicles we drive today. (Which? compared the 1980 Ford Cortina 2.0-litre petrol’s fuel economy with that of a 2011 Ford Mondeo 2.0-litre petrol.)

However, there are other, real, deflationary forces at work in the service and repair market, here and abroad. The American Automobile Association’s 2011 'Your Driving Costs' study shows light vehicle maintenance costs have dropped 2.2% year on year to 4.44 cents per mile on average for ‘sedans’, reflecting a trend by vehicle manufacturers to include some portion of scheduled maintenance in the purchase price and extending recommended maintenance intervals.

What is still increasing is the cost of tyres and other products, driven by materials price inflation. But depreciation remains the largest component of the AAA survey’s annual average sedan running costs of $8,776, and it increased year-on-year by 4.9% to account for an annual average $3,728 or 42% of annual holding and running costs for sedans driving 15,000 miles a year.

Toby Procter

Trend Tracker Limited

0870 421 4350

aftermarket report bodyshop market car finance electric vehicles car servicing

The second report is the Repair Trend Tracker, run since 2005, and based on consumer surveys too. The third report is the UK Car Service and Repair Market report, published every two years since 1994, looking at market size and trends and the garage supply structure in the UK.

The USP of this body of work is the trend data reaching as far back as 1987, crucially before the recession in the early 1990s, which enables us to produce the forecasts going forward five years to 2015 contained in the new report. We shall not bore you with the details of the econometric model utilised, but suffice to say it has produced surprisingly accurate results in the past.

Of the various inputs to the forecast model, the effects of each vary and can be interdependent. This time, as in the recession of the early 1990s, the dominant variable was the fall in new car sales leading to changes in the age profile of the UK car parc. Of course new car sales have been falling since the peak in 2003 and thus the number of cars up to four years old, so essential to dealers’ service departments, had been falling for a while to stand 15% below its peak at the beginning of the recession. By the end of next year the four-year car parc will be 25% lower.

The recession of the early 1990s resulted in similar falls in the four-year car parc, and the effects on the servicing and repair market this time will be the same, although ameliorated by longer new car warranties. Quite simply, the ups and downs of each car parc age segment affect, in turn, the market providers. Thus franchised dealers draw most of their work from the four-year car parc, as the new report illustrates, and therefore a 25% fall in this segment obviously reduces the potential customer base for dealers’ workshops. In other words, the changing car parc age profile, and the number of cars in each age segment, effectively transfer work between provider sectors. So with such concrete historic trends available to us, the forecast was relatively easy, and we trust accurate.

Written by Trend Tracker director Chris Oakham, this piece first appeared his column in the subscription monthly Auto Retail Bulletin in June 2010. (See //auto-retail.co.uk
for subscription details.)

Chris Oakham

Trend Tracker Limited

0870 421 4350

aftermarket report bodyshop market car finance electric vehicles car servicing

The most recent editions of these compendiums give some reason for optimism. For example in 1952, buses accounted for 42% of all travel (expressed as billions of passenger kilometres) followed by cars at 27% and rail 18%. In the latest year for which complete statistics are available, cars were the basis of 84% of all travel with buses and rail on 6% and 7% respectively. So cars are firmly entrenched as the UK’s premier mode of travel and it would require a seismic shift in public transport to compete. Indeed the forecasts provided by the DfT going forward to 2025 anticipate a 33% increase in the number of cars compared to 2003.

The popularity of cars is further emphasised by the growth in driving licence holders – up from 48% of all adults in 1975 to 75% in 2008 to around 34.5 million. Access to cars for households has also increased dramatically, from a mere 16% of households having one or more cars in 1952 to 76% in 2007, when 6% of households had three or more.

On the downside, car owners are driving less, according to the DfT. In their 1995/1997 survey, they calculated average annual mileage as 9,700 miles. In 2008 it had fallen by 10% to 8,690 miles per annum, with private motorists averaging 8,130 miles and company car users 19,760. The fall in average mileage probably has a lot to do with multiple car ownership.

The DfT’s analysis of MOT testing reveals the potential of this area of aftersales business. Before 2006/07 MOT testing was not computerised, so the data are not as robust, but in 1999/00 some 22 million cars were tested and 7.4 million failed. In 2008/09, with computer data available, 28 million cars were tested and 10.2 million failed. The major areas for failure in 2008/09 were lighting (18.9%), brakes (17.1%) and suspension (12.2%). While a reasonably significant proportion of MOT tests is paid for by dealers when selling used cars – perhaps three million tests –MOT testing clearly represents an important profit centre in its own right, in addition to the ten million failures requiring a fix.

Another point of interest from these reports is how many people are employed. The DfT lists garage owners and proprietors, mechanics and technicians, car body operatives, and tyre and windscreen fitters, so there are many other occupations not researched by the DfT. The total for these four categories in 2008 was over 300,000, with mechanics and technicians the largest contingent at 207,000.

Overall, then, the facts and figures paint a picture of a large and essential sector of the UK economy, and leave you with the overwhelming impression that the car business is here to stay, along with cars.

Written by Trend Tracker director Chris Oakham, this piece first appeared his column in the subscription monthly Auto Retail Bulletin in May 2010. (See //auto-retail.co.uk
for subscription details.)

Chris Oakham

Trend Tracker Limited

0870 421 4350

aftermarket report bodyshop market car finance electric vehicles car servicing

On a brighter note, ASE reckons that car sales per sales executive increased by 22% from 144 in 2008 to 176 in 2009. Of course this improvement could have been distorted by redundancies due to the recession, but our own figures - based on new car sales per member of staff - confirm a near-20% improvement over the last ten years.

Given that around 70% of gross profits generated in a dealership go on paying wages and salaries, efficiency is a key factor when it comes to improving bottom line profits. Obviously if you can get more sales out of fewer people then you make more money. Recessions create the opportunity to improve efficiency and get more from less. Indeed the more successful dealer groups over the last two years have cut staff and actually increased turnover or at the very least balanced staff numbers with changes in turnover.

The apparent improvement in car sales efficiency has never been researched to our knowledge, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the internet (and computers more generally) and the appointment of fleet sales specialists could be the reasons. In other words, dealerships have got more from less thanks to technology (the internet) and through specialisation. Sadly, though, it appears that service departments and bodyshops haven't applied 'more power to your elbow' or embraced specialisation.

Clearly workshop overall labour efficiency is complex - composed as it is of productivity, or how fast technicians work relative to standard times, and utilisation which depends on having plenty of paying work available. Utilisation will have undoubtedly been affected by the recession, but looking at the longer term trends, utilisation has been falling but productivity has fallen more in both service departments and bodyshops. The fall in productivity could be because standard times are tighter now, but as cars change it is difficult to assess. What we probably can say is that, in general, workshops haven't focused on the potential benefits of investment in technology and specialisation but continued to operate along traditional lines.

This is not the place for a rundown on workshop equipment, but one example we came across recently was Robodry, which can massively reduce the time required to paint a car. And there are plenty of other technological solutions available for service workshops and bodyshops. As well as technology, it seems that sales departments have benefitted from specialisation and it is equally possible for workshops to employ a similar approach even if it means breaking with traditional practices.

Put simply, there has never been a better time to change things for the better, and workshop efficiency is a good place to start.

Written by Trend Tracker director Chris Oakham, this piece first appeared his column in the subscription monthly Auto Retail Bulletin in April 2010. (See www.auto-retail.com for subscription details.)

Chris Oakham

Trend Tracker Limited

0870 421 4350

aftermarket report bodyshop market car finance electric vehicles car servicing

There are two approaches: either an uncomplicated 'job count' or a full analysis including average job values. To paraphrase the instructions for computer software, the former is 'recommended' and the latter is for 'advanced users'.

For a 'job count', you just need to list common jobs in a table. These could include, for example, routine servicing, tyres, MOT testing, brakes, exhausts, engine/electronics, battery/electrical, suspension/steering, gearbox/clutch, cooling ….. 'other' (to cover everything else not specifically identified). As we are usually only concerned with the retail market for servicing, maintenance and repairs, we don't include internal or warranty work but you might like to add these as broad categories.

Next you select at least 100 job cards from a week or two during a reasonably busy period like September or October. If, for instance, the first job card off the top shows a routine service, two tyres replaced and front brake pads, then you place one tick against each of these categories. Then you just carry on through the rest of the job cards in a similar fashion. Finally add up the total number of entries in each category and overall to arrive at what percentage each is of the total.

In an analysis we completed recently on a franchised workshop, the dealer returned 1.7 operations per job card or 170 separate operations for 100 job cards. Of these 170 operations, 69 were routine services, 24 brakes, 19 MOTs, 16 engine/electrical, 7 tyre replacements and 3 suspension/steering. On the other hand a recent check on an independent revealed 1.3 operations per job card with 47 MOTs in 100 jobs cards, 29 routine services, 12 tyre replacements, 10 brakes and 7 suspension/steering.

These results are fairly typical and not unexpected. The franchised workshop is a routine service specialist with 70% of job cards led by a service. The independent garage carried out many more MOT tests than the dealer, more 'repairs' and does reasonably well from servicing too.

Interestingly, the franchised dealer concerned has a comprehensive DMS computer (dealer management system), but only markets its MOT facility infrequently. The independent has no computer at all however the owner runs a simple MOT reminder system. This consists of a filing box divided into 24 months (because MOTs can be for 13 months). He makes out MOT reminders when customers collect their cars and places them in the divider 12 months hence. When the time arrives he sticks stamps on that month's MOT reminders and puts them in the post. Remarkably simple but obviously very effective!

Written by Trend Tracker director Chris Oakham, this piece first appeared his column in the subscription monthly Auto Retail Bulletin in January 2010. (See www.auto-retail.com for subscription details.)

Chris Oakham

Trend Tracker Limited

0870 421 4350

aftermarket report bodyshop market car finance electric vehicles car servicing

Motor Trade Business Management Award
Sponsored by ASE incorporating Trevor Jones
Winner: Julie Oliver, Mitchell North West

Most Improved Business Award
Sponsored by NIG
Winner: L&L Automotive Mercedes-Benz Hertfordshire

Customer Care Award
Sponsored by Car Care Plan
Winner: Ken Jervis (Kia) (Stoke-on-Trent)

Aftermarket Innovation Award
Sponsored by Mobil 1
Winner: Ken Jervis (Kia) (Stoke-on-Trent)

Marketing Award
Sponsored by AutoTrader.co.uk
Winner: The Car Shop (Northampton)

Website of the Year Award
Sponsored by Motors.co.uk
Winner: Sytner Group Ltd (Leicester)
Highly commended: Clive Sutton, Holden Group

Product of her Year Award
Sponsored by Motor Trader
Winner: Castrol Professional - Red Carpet Training
Highly commended: Motor Codes

Used Car Retailer of the Year
Sponsored by Aviva Driveaway Insurance
Winner: Thame Service Station (Oxfordshire)
Highly commended: TC Harrison (Derby)

Bodyshop of the Year
Sponsored by Britannia Accident Assist
Winner: AJC Wilson Bodyshop (Essex)

Garage of the Year Award
Sponsored by Motor Codes
Winner: Academy Group (Manchester)

Car Franchise Of the Year Award
Sponsored by Mondial Assistance
Winner: Kia Motors (UK)

Service Adviser of the Year Award
Sponsored by Castrol Professional
Winner: Michael Allison, Sinclair Volkswagen
Highly commended: Jazz Mann, Chiswick Honda (London)

Sales Team of the Year Award
Sponsored by MAPFRE Abraxas
Winner: L & L Automotive Mercedes-Benz Hertfordshire

Sales Manager of the Year Award
Sponsored by Dealerweb
Winner: Gareth Lloyd Sinclair Volkswagen

Dealer Principal of the Year
Sponsored by eBay Motors Pro
Winner: Amarjit Shokar Romford Mazda (Romford)

Franchised Dealership of the Year Award
Sponsored by Experian
Winner: Now Kingston (Middlesex)

Dealer Group of the Year Award
Sponsored by HPI Finance Gateway
Winner: Sytner Group

Outstanding Achievement Award
Sponsored by Aviva
Winner: Robert Forrester (Vertu Motors)

Meanwhile, Wolk & Partner has developed a comprehensive database of 47,594 automotive service & repair businesses which are either franchised dealer workshops or belong to various independent garage networks. All are listed by name and address with mail, phone/fax and e-mail contact details, are mapped to show network densities throughout the German regions, and can be sorted by location and by manufacturer/franchise.
The data can be deployed for mailings, acquisition assessments and network planning, and Wolk is able to support clients' B2B marketing efforts with geo-marketing, applying mapping to the database at federal and regional levels. Wolk can also supply bespoke analyses of the database, analyzing workshops, for example, by number of productive staff. Ask Toby Procter for more information if you could use this data - call 0870 421 4350.

Wolk & Partner, a company which has kept tabs on the structure and size of the German light vehicle aftermarket since 1996, says there are currently some 1,050 trade aftermarket parts outlets serving over 1,950 workshops in the independent aftermarket. The trade is dominated by six major wholesalers (Stahlgruber, WM, Trost, Europart, PV, KSM) operating on a national scale, and 17 supra-regional wholesalers. Around 1,000 parts & accessories retailers serve a still-growing German B2C market.

A recent report from Wolk & Partner covers the German independent aftermarket for parts in two volumes, the first including data on the market size and structure, the second providing detailed information on the various players, with over 60 corporate profiles of aftermarket suppliers and their networks.

A second two-volume report from Wolk & Partner covers Germany's independent workshop networks. The first volume includes the results of a survey of workshops' opinions of their 'soft franchises', and gives contact details for 91 major 'soft franchise' businesses. The second volume compares 44 independent garage networks, each being analysed in 4-6 pages of comparative data for benchmarking purposes.

These reports, in German, are priced from €950 depending on a choice of optional formats and packages, but special UK prices will apply. Contact Toby Procter of Trend Tracker on 0870 421 4350 for more information.